India’s online retail market, valued at around $65-66 billion in 2025, is expected to grow by over 20% annually, aiming to hit $170-180 billion by 2030, accounting for approximately one-tenth of retail spending. According to a report by Bain and Company and Flipkart, e-retail gross merchandise value saw a 19-21% increase in value terms, with growth picking up momentum throughout the year, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and consumer sentiment.
The report highlighted that private consumption growth surged from 8% in the period of 2022-24 to 10.5%, attributed to GST reductions, income tax benefits, lower inflation, and decreased lending rates. This growth trend led to a 22-24% surge in the second half of the year and an estimated 23-25% growth in Q1 2026, reflecting a broader resurgence in consumer spending and discretionary purchases.
Q-commerce, which promises delivery within 30 minutes, has been experiencing a doubling in growth annually over the past two years, reaching a GMV of $10-11 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to achieve $65-$70 billion by 2030. Traditional e-retail is expected to maintain its dominance in the overall market, holding a 60-65% share by 2030.
India is emerging as a significant global consumer market, set to capture 1 in 8 additional consumption dollars over the next five years. The shopper base has more than doubled in the last five years, reaching 290-300 million in 2025, supported by rapid expansion of the seller ecosystem and deeper penetration into various geographic regions.
Gen Z, comprising 40-45% of e-retail shoppers, played a substantial role in driving incremental e-retail orders in 2025, with their per-shopper spending growing 2.5 times faster compared to other age groups in metropolitan areas. Gen Z exhibited unique shopping preferences, particularly in lifestyle, beauty, and electronics categories, engaging in influencer-led trend discovery on social media, immersive videos/feeds, and utilizing instant credit options.
Manan Bhasin, a Partner at Bain & Company, noted that shopping behavior in quick commerce is distinctive, with high-intent shopping missions leading to increased search frequency, faster checkouts, and higher conversion rates. Sessions in quick commerce typically last less than five minutes, half the duration of traditional e-commerce journeys.
