The recent killing of Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, son of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, signifies a shift in the Mediterranean region towards managed disorder. Elections are being postponed indefinitely, and assassinations are being used as corrective measures. The situation reflects a move away from political solutions, raising concerns about a dangerous normalization trend.
Sergio Restelli, an Italian political advisor and geopolitical expert, emphasized in a piece for the ‘Times of Israel’ that the assassination of Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi is not just a Libyan event but a broader Mediterranean issue. The region is witnessing a militarization trend where political alternatives are diminishing, governance is giving way to force, and the Mediterranean is becoming a contested frontier rather than a shared space.
The article pointed out that Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi represented a distinct political pole in Libya, different from the fragmented authorities in Tripoli and the militarized administration in the east led by Libyan Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. His removal has narrowed Libya’s political spectrum, reinforcing the trend of consolidating authority through coercion rather than consent, which poses a threat to stability in the Mediterranean basin.
Haftar’s rise and the broader Mediterranean pattern of authoritarian leaders filling institutional vacuums were highlighted. The report emphasized that predictability enforced by militias is fragile, leading to the privatization of coastlines and the blurring of migration control, energy security, and weapons trafficking in shadow economies. The assassination of Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi is seen as strengthening the narrative that power in the southern Mediterranean is gained through force rather than democratic processes.
