As the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) prepares to unveil the new GDP series with a base year of 2022–23, a sub-committee under MoSPI has suggested an increased utilization of GST data for GDP calculations. This move is part of MoSPI’s initiative to update the base year of National Accounts to FY 2022–23.
Under the previous 2011-12 series, GST data were employed in compiling both Quarterly and Annual National Accounts in specific sectors. India’s transition from a 2011-12 to a 2022-23 GDP base year, alongside an updated CPI base in 2024, aims to provide a more accurate representation of the current economic landscape, encompassing the surge in digital commerce and services.
The revamp involves a more comprehensive assessment of the informal sector and the inclusion of new data sources such as GST, potentially positioning India as the world’s fourth-largest economy. The updated methodology will integrate finer data points, including GST records, e-Vahan (vehicle registrations), and data on natural gas consumption.
Initial estimates project a 7.4% GDP growth in FY26, primarily propelled by domestic demand. SBI research forecasts India’s GDP growth for the third quarter of FY26 to range between 8-8.1%, indicating a robust domestic economy amidst global challenges. High-frequency data highlights resilient economic activity in Q3 FY26 (October-December 2025).
Despite facing an adverse base effect, the GDP growth for Q3 FY26 is anticipated to remain strong at 8.3%, as per a report by Union Bank of India. The upcoming release on Friday will unveil the Second Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26, along with GDP estimates for the past three fiscal years and Quarterly GDP figures based on the new 2022-23 base.
