International crude oil prices increased on Monday due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in West Asia, particularly amidst the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Brent crude futures went up by 2.01% to $111.23 per barrel, close to a 52-week high, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 3.53% to $115.48.
In India, crude oil futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for the May 18 contract were trading at Rs 9,276, marking a 0.9% increase. The contract reached an intraday high of Rs 9,335, showing a 1.54% rise.
The recent surge in oil prices follows a significant rally in the previous session, with WTI climbing over 11% and Brent nearly 8%, the most substantial one-day gains since 2020, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions.
Analysts emphasize that crude oil remains a crucial factor influencing markets, with prices staying strong amid ongoing worries about supply disruptions. Globally, US crude is trading in the $110–$112 range, near a critical resistance zone, and a potential breakout above $115 could lead to a rally towards $118–$120 levels.
Experts suggest that a drop below $109 might trigger a correction towards $106, with solid support levels around $100–$102, while maintaining a bullish trend as long as these support levels hold. The tensions escalated after US President Donald Trump issued warnings to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about global oil supply disruptions.
OPEC+ has agreed to boost output by 206,000 barrels per day in May, but this move is unlikely to significantly alleviate supply concerns in the short term. Meanwhile, the domestic stock markets in India experienced declines, with the Sensex dropping 529 points to 72,790 and the Nifty falling 150 points to 22,561 in early trade.
