Pakistan’s reported 3.7% economic growth in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 may not reflect actual increases in production or exports, as per a report. The think tank EPBD highlighted concerns over the growth figures approved by the National Accounts Committee, attributing them to “methodological artefacts, deflator manipulation, and import-led assembly activity” rather than genuine productivity gains.
The report suggested that the data presented by Pakistan aimed to create an illusion of economic recovery, despite ongoing pressures on business activity, manufacturing output, and exports. Notably, the reported 9.4% industrial growth was largely influenced by accounting adjustments, with specific sectors showing discrepancies between reported growth and actual output.
EPBD pointed out significant disparities between reported domestic growth and trade indicators, emphasizing a lack of sustainable, private-sector-led growth in the economy. Concerns were raised over the decline in exports by around 9% and the rise in imports by 11% during the first half of the year, indicating potential challenges in achieving balanced economic growth.
The agriculture sector also faced challenges, with reported growth of 2.9% despite issues such as flood impacts and stagnant crop output. The report highlighted declines in cotton production, ginning, and cotton-based exports, suggesting underlying weaknesses in key agricultural segments.
