A new IPL champion will be crowned as Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) face off against Punjab Kings (PBKS) in the highly anticipated final at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad on June 3, 2025. Both sides are aiming for their maiden IPL trophy, setting the stage for a historic clash between two well-matched teams.
In this Article
Head-to-Head Record: RCB vs PBKS in 2025
This IPL season has seen these two teams clash three times:
- Match 1: PBKS won at Chinnaswamy Stadium
- Match 2: RCB took revenge in the reverse fixture
- Qualifier 2: RCB dominated again to take a 2-1 season lead
With RCB edging ahead, they carry slight momentum into the final, but PBKS will be keen to settle the score when it matters the most.
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Match-Winning Metrics and Player Impact
Here are critical in-game scenarios that could shift the match dynamics:
| Scenario | Team | Boost in Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Powerplay 50+ Runs | RCB | +25% |
| Powerplay 50+ Runs | PBKS | +12% |
| Virat Kohli scores 30+ | RCB | +42% |
| Shreyas Iyer scores 30+ | PBKS | +19% |
| Death Overs 45+ Runs | RCB | +27% |
| Death Overs 45+ Runs | PBKS | +19% |
| Josh Hazlewood 2+ Wickets | RCB | +23% |
| Prabhsimran Singh 35+ Runs | PBKS | +8% |
RCB’s success hinges largely on Virat Kohli’s form and Josh Hazlewood’s breakthroughs, while PBKS depends on strong starts and finishing power in the death overs.
Data-Driven Win Probability Analysis
Bayesian win probability models reveal:
- Punjab Kings: 52% chance to win
- Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 48% chance to win
The margins are razor-thin, highlighting how small moments—like a dropped catch or a well-timed six—could decide the match.
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Venue Factor: What to Expect at Narendra Modi Stadium
The Ahmedabad pitch generally supports aggressive batting, with flat bounce and short boundaries on one side. Historically, teams batting first have an advantage under lights due to increasing dew.
- Par score: 180+
- Chasing record: 175+ considered competitive
- Weather forecast: Clear skies, no rain interruptions expected
Predicted Final Scores
- If RCB bats first: 180–185
- If PBKS bats first: 185–190
- Chasing will be tough if the target crosses 180
Predicted Playing XIs
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
Rajat Patidar (C), Virat Kohli, Faf du Plessis, Glenn Maxwell, Dinesh Karthik (wk), Mahipal Lomror, Cameron Green, Karn Sharma, Mohammed Siraj, Josh Hazlewood, Yash Dayal
Punjab Kings
Shreyas Iyer (C), Prabhsimran Singh, Liam Livingstone, Sam Curran, Jitesh Sharma (wk), Rilee Rossouw, Harpreet Brar, Rahul Chahar, Kagiso Rabada, Arshdeep Singh, Harshal Patel
PBKS may rest Yuzvendra Chahal, who looked rusty in the eliminator, in favor of Harpreet Brar.
Weather Forecast for IPL 2025 Final
According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Ahmedabad will experience clear skies on match day. With no rain expected, a full match is on the cards, adding to the excitement.
Final Prediction: Who Will Win RCB vs PBKS IPL 2025 Final?
This is one of the most evenly matched finals in IPL history. PBKS holds a slight edge due to their improved middle-order and death overs performance, led by Shreyas Iyer’s composure and Sam Curran’s firepower.
However, RCB’s experience in big matches and their clinical bowling unit make them just as dangerous. If Kohli clicks, RCB’s chances skyrocket.
Final Verdict:
Punjab Kings to win by 12–15 runs or 3–4 wickets if they maintain control in the final five overs. But if RCB bowlers strike early or Kohli plays a blinder, expect a twist in the tale.
