More than half of economic experts anticipate that South Korea’s economic growth will linger around the 1 per cent mark for the foreseeable future, as revealed by a recent local survey. The survey, conducted by Southernpost Inc. on behalf of the Korea Enterprises Federation (KEF), found that 54 percent of 100 economics professors surveyed believe South Korea is likely to experience growth in the 1 per cent range this year.
Additionally, 36 percent of the experts foresee Asia’s fourth-largest economy achieving growth in the 2 per cent range by 2027, driven by a gradual recovery in consumption and demand. Only six percent of respondents predicted growth falling below 1 per cent.
On average, the economists surveyed forecast a 1.8 percent growth for the South Korean economy this year, slightly below the government’s 2 percent outlook and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 1.9 percent projection. South Korea’s economy had expanded by 1 percent the previous year, down from 2 percent growth in the year before that.
The experts also projected the won-dollar exchange rate to fluctuate between 1,403 won and 1,516 won this year. Nearly 60 percent of the economists expressed concerns that the outcome of U.S.-South Korea tariff negotiations could negatively impact exports to the United States and domestic corporate investment.
Moreover, 92 percent of the experts believed that the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in workplaces would help address labor shortages and enhance productivity, especially in the manufacturing sector. Almost 90 percent urged the government to implement effective measures to prevent the overseas leakage of semiconductors and other core technologies, including imposing strict penalties for related violations.
Meanwhile, major global investment banks (IBs) have raised their forecasts for South Korea’s economic growth, citing a robust semiconductor upcycle. However, they cautioned that the economy is displaying signs of an uneven “K-shaped recovery,” as per a report by the international finance center. According to the Korea Center for International Finance (KCIF), the median growth forecast by major foreign institutions for 2026 has been revised upward to 2.0 percent in January from 1.8 percent in early November.
