As India prepares for Akshaya Tritiya, a significant day for gold purchases, analysts anticipate a potential price increase of up to Rs 1.85 lakh. Axis Direct’s analysis suggests that gold’s investment appeal is strengthened by macroeconomic trends, positioning it well in the current global scenario. The brokerage highlighted that regardless of whether the global economy faces stagflation or rate cuts, the structural backdrop favors gold.
Elevated crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, are expected to sustain inflation while growth slows, a combination that typically boosts demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Analysts have set a near-term target of $5,300–$5,500 per ounce for COMEX gold. In the domestic market, the projected price range for gold is Rs 1.7 lakh-Rs 1.85 lakh per 10 grams, indicating a potential upside of up to 15% from current levels.
The outlook for gold follows a volatile first quarter in 2026, with COMEX prices experiencing fluctuations amid geopolitical tensions, crude oil price surges, inflation concerns, and ETF outflows. Despite this volatility, gold has shown resilience, with prices recovering as crude oil prices eased post-ceasefire talks. The metal is seen as building a strong foundation for future growth.
Over the past decade, gold has delivered impressive returns during successive Akshaya Tritiya periods, outperforming equity benchmarks. The investment case for gold remains robust, with Indian gold ETF inflows rising significantly and a structural shift observed in global reserves. Central bank purchases of gold have surpassed holdings of US Treasuries, underlining the metal’s enduring appeal as a portfolio necessity.
