The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation anticipates no significant alteration in India’s GDP growth projections following the upcoming release of the revised national accounts series in February. Secretary Saurabh Garg mentioned that they do not foresee a substantial deviation from their previous estimates. The new GDP series, to be unveiled by the government, will also introduce a fresh inflation series and back-series data for 2022-23, 2023-24, and 2024-25 for enhanced continuity and comparison.
India’s growth prospects have brightened after a better-than-expected 8.2% expansion in the economy during the second quarter. This positive development has prompted an upward revision in growth forecasts for 2025-26. The Reserve Bank of India has raised its GDP growth projection to 7.3%. A significant aspect of the revised methodology involves a broader utilization of real-time data sources, particularly Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) filings.
The Ministry will conduct capacity-building workshops for states to bolster Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) estimations. Efforts are underway to enhance the measurement of the informal economy, a traditionally challenging aspect of national accounting. The Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) will play a crucial role in the base revision of GDP, offering more detailed and frequent information.
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran cautioned about the complexities of measuring informality, emphasizing the lack of uniform measures globally. He highlighted the tendency of small businesses to mix personal and business finances, potentially leading to overestimation. The ministry is collaborating with states to create satellite accounts for under-measured sectors like the digital economy and tourism, aligning with the upcoming System of National Accounts 2025 revision.
