Nearly 80 million barrels of crude oil are poised to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if a potential US-Iran agreement leads to the continuous reopening of this crucial shipping route. Currently, about 40 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) filled with non-sanctioned Gulf crude are stationed in the Persian Gulf, alongside Iranian oil and smaller tankers, indicating a higher volume of waiting supply. Prior to disruptions from the US-Iran conflict, approximately 15 million barrels per day of Gulf crude typically traversed the Strait of Hormuz to Asian purchasers.
Reports reveal that roughly 21 VLCCs are indicating destinations towards Asia, with five bound for China, five heading for ship-to-ship transfer hubs near Malaysia and Singapore, and at least three observed moving towards the strait at regular speeds. Three Saudi super tankers have reappeared in the Gulf of Oman, suggesting a resumption of traffic, although shipping groups have warned of lingering security risks.
Following the signing of a peace deal between the US and Iran, a return to normal ship movements is anticipated through the Strait of Hormuz. This tentative agreement has led to a significant drop in crude prices to approximately $75 per barrel and is projected to contribute to reduced inflation in the future.
Iran has recently implemented new regulations for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, mandating advance registration, permits, and insurance for ships entering one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes, despite the recent reopening under the US-Iran agreement. Under the updated procedures, ship owners and operators must submit transit requests at least 48 hours before reaching the strait, ensuring the provision of all necessary information in advance to prevent delays at entry and exit points.
