Amid rising geopolitical tensions, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down Bangladesh’s economic growth forecast to 4 percent for the current fiscal year, citing increased fuel prices and disruptions in global supply chains. The ADB’s earlier projection of 4.7 percent has been adjusted downwards. The bank anticipates a growth rate of 4.7 percent for the following fiscal year (2026–27).
The ADB has now revised Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate for the third time. Initially forecasted at 5.1 percent in April last year, the growth rate has seen successive reductions to the current 4 percent projection. The report highlights a gradual recovery in consumption and investment, supported by improved political stability post general elections.
According to the ADB, temporary disruptions in supply chains due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia impacted the last quarter but are expected to diminish. ADB Country Director Hoe Yun Jeong emphasized the challenging economic environment faced by Bangladesh, influenced by global uncertainties, internal structural limitations, and pressures on external and financial sectors.
Inflation is foreseen to remain high at approximately 9 percent in FY26 before easing to 8.5 percent in FY27 as external shocks alleviate and domestic supply conditions enhance. The report warns of significant downside risks to the economic outlook if conflicts persist. It also cautions that disruptions in global energy markets, shipping routes, and supply chains could escalate oil and gas prices, heightening inflationary pressures.
