A study by the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem) has highlighted that Bangladesh may encounter an electricity supply deficit after 2031 unless significant investments, policy reforms, and efficiency enhancements are implemented. The country’s installed power generation capacity is projected to peak at approximately 35,000 megawatts (MW) by 2029, but its effective capacity could decline to nearly 30,000MW by the mid-2030s due to plant retirements, reduced domestic gas availability, and constraints on new project additions, as reported by The Daily Star.
Sanem’s study, presented by Director Israt Hossain and Honorary Deputy Director Tuhin Ahmed during an online workshop on Bangladesh’s energy transition, emphasized that the notion of overcapacity in the power sector is deceptive. It warned that under a growth scenario of 5-6 percent annually driven by industrialization, mechanization, and improved living standards, the demand for electricity is expected to outstrip supply by 2035 or even earlier, potentially resulting in a shortfall exceeding 14,000MW by 2040 without appropriate interventions.
The study underscored the necessity of ensuring reliable, fuel-secure, and efficiently generated electricity in the long run. It also pointed out that private power producers currently account for nearly half of the installed generation capacity in Bangladesh, operating more than 70 facilities with a combined capacity exceeding 11,000MW. The heavy reliance on imported energy has left the country’s economy highly susceptible to global price fluctuations, noted Sanem executive director Selim Raihan, as quoted by The Daily Star.
Recent power shortages in Dhaka, such as the outage following the partial collapse of the national power transmission grid on September 25 last year, have underscored the pressing challenges in the country’s power sector. Data from Power Grid Bangladesh revealed a shortfall of 498MW at 4 pm on that day, with power supply at 14,379MW against a demand of 14,900MW, representing nearly half of Bangladesh’s current installed power generation capacity of 28,197MW.
