When the Assam Assembly election takes place on April 9, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will strive for a third consecutive win and a standalone majority, a feat it has pursued for ten years. Since coming to power in 2016, the BJP has consistently secured around 60 seats, falling short of the halfway mark in the 126-member state Assembly. In 2016, it ended the Congress’ 15-year rule and cemented its political dominance in the Northeast by forming a government with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF).
Assam’s Muslim population, constituting over 34.2% of the total as per the 2011 Census, is mainly concentrated in specific districts like Dhubri, Goalpara, and Barpeta. The Scheduled Tribes (ST) population, around 12.4%, includes significant segments like Bodos, Miris, and Karbis, spread across various regions. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has been influential in these areas.
In the 2021 elections, the BJP once again stopped at 60 seats. While it performed well in Assamese-majority regions, it struggled to make substantial progress in Muslim-dominated or ethnically distinct areas. The party’s majority continued to rely on alliance partners like the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL). The BJP’s failure to surpass the halfway mark reflects consolidation without expansion, influenced by Assam’s demographic balance and the party’s emphasis on identity politics amidst the state’s diverse fault lines.
Muslims in Assam are divided into Assamese-speaking Muslims of Upper Assam and those of Bengali origin in Lower Assam. Their cohesive voting behavior, historically favoring the Congress, saw a shift with the emergence of Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF in 2005. The Congress-AIUDF alliance in 2021 capitalized on this consolidation, excluding the BJP from Muslim-dominated seats and curbing vote splitting. The Congress, under Gaurav Gogoi’s leadership, is striving to regain support among minorities, tea tribes, and sections of the Assamese middle class amidst anti-incumbency sentiments.
