The domestic e-commerce market is projected to expand by more than 150% in the next four years, with the addition of 150 million new digital shoppers and a doubling of per capita spending, as per a recent report. A joint study by Google and Deloitte forecasts a significant transformation in the online business sector, estimating a growth to $250 billion by 2030 from the current $90 billion, marking a 177% surge.
The report emphasizes that a 220-million-strong Gen Z cohort is anticipated to contribute 45% of online spending, hastening the adoption of AI-driven shopping experiences. It identifies ‘4I’ key growth drivers – Inspired, Intelligent, Instant, and Immersive – expected to add around $100 billion to the sector’s overall growth by 2030.
Roma Datta Chobey, Managing Director of Connected Consumer Commerce at Google India, noted that Indian commerce is at a crucial juncture due to evolving consumer expectations centered on storytelling, AI-driven personalization, and instant fulfillment. She highlighted Google’s commitment to empowering this ecosystem through intelligence and trust, simplifying the journey from discovery to purchase.
Anand Ramanathan, Partner and Consumer Industry Leader for South Asia at Deloitte, observed the sector’s shift from mass marketing to an era of ‘algorithmic intimacy,’ where demand is anticipated and influenced in real-time. He mentioned that Gen Z consumers are propelling the emergence of ‘generative commerce,’ where AI tailors or generates solutions based on consumer needs.
The report also predicts that creators are poised to impact 30% of total retail spending by 2030, with an expectation that one in ten online purchases will be associated with creator storefronts, particularly in Tier 2 and smaller markets. Additionally, live commerce is forecasted to evolve into an $8 billion segment, while quick commerce is set to grow into a $50 billion market, catering to around 70 million users.
Furthermore, artificial intelligence (AI) is anticipated to boost retail profitability by up to 35% by enabling hyper-personalization and enhancing operational efficiency, according to the report.
