Global copper prices have risen almost 40% in the fiscal year 2026, reaching about $13,000 per tonne by January 2026. This increase is attributed to ongoing mine-side supply disruptions, decreasing ore grades, and inventory dislocations across exchanges. Ratings agency ICRA stated that tight supply conditions outside the United States, along with tariff uncertainties, are likely to maintain prices between $11,000–12,000 per tonne in the first half of fiscal year 2027.
The copper market is expected to remain in deficit throughout calendar years 2025 and 2026 due to supply growth lagging behind demand. This imbalance is projected to continue supporting prices, according to the agency’s forecast. Inventory build-ups at COMEX and drawdowns at London Metal Exchange have been influenced by tariff-related uncertainties in the US and the risk of renewed trade actions, leading to tightened availability outside the United States.
Despite the positive outlook, ICRA highlighted potential downside risks for copper prices in fiscal year 2027. The agency also mentioned that elevated copper prices may pose near-term demand moderation risks, especially in price-sensitive end-use segments. Softening physical premiums in China suggest emerging demand sensitivity at higher price levels, indicating potential risks of demand deferral or substitution in the short term.
India’s domestic copper consumption is anticipated to grow annually at a rate of 10–12% over the next two years, although the growth pace is expected to slow down from the elevated 14–15% seen in the first seven months of fiscal year 2026. Looking ahead, the demand for copper in India is likely to be increasingly driven by applications linked to energy transition, such as renewable energy, power grids, data centers, and electric vehicles.
ICRA forecasts that upstream copper entities are likely to benefit from firm prices, which will support operating profitability. However, downstream smelting and refining entities may face margin pressure in the foreseeable future.
