Facing a memory shortage, global smartphone shipments in 2025 saw minimal growth due to improved economic conditions and holiday demand. Shipments rose by 3.8% in Q4 2025, marking the strongest holiday quarter since 2021, except for China and Eastern Europe. However, a significant decline of 12.4% is forecasted for 2026, the steepest drop ever, attributed to memory shortages and component price inflation.
Counterpoint Research anticipates a prolonged downturn until late 2027, with lower-end OEMs most affected by LPDDR4 supply constraints. Manufacturers are responding with delays, portfolio adjustments, and price hikes of 10% to 20% in some Android OEM products. Structural imbalances in the memory supply chain, focusing on higher-margin products, are driving the current market challenges.
The premium smartphone segment is expected to fare better, with Apple and Samsung likely to withstand the downturn due to supply chain strength and premium offerings. In contrast, the sub-$200 price category may experience a decline of over 20%. The recovery is anticipated by late 2027 as additional memory capacity becomes available, according to the report.
