Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) Director John Dotson cautioned about the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) potentially engaging in more assertive actions around Taiwan. Dotson highlighted the PLA’s preparations aligning with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aim for the PLA to be capable of seizing Taiwan by 2027. Senior non-resident fellow Ann Kowalewski from GTI mentioned that 2026 marks the deadline for China’s PLA to achieve this capability, as reported by Taipei Times.
GTI emphasized the escalating pressure from China on Taiwan in 2025, citing the PLA’s ‘Justice Mission 2025’ military drills. Analysts have raised concerns that 2027 could be a critical juncture in cross-strait relations following warnings by then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson about potential Chinese invasion preparations by 2027. Kowalewski noted that despite political analysis suggesting China is not fully prepared yet, there could be a significant increase in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military capabilities this year.
Dotson highlighted recent PLA military exercises near Taiwan’s main island, featuring a more aggressive deployment of the China Coast Guard. He explained that positioning the coast guard close to Taiwan could be justified as law enforcement patrols rather than military actions, serving China’s narrative. The GTI Director also expressed skepticism about China’s justifications for these exercises, citing planned large-scale drills well in advance.
Taiwan’s National Security Bureau accused the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of conducting military drills near Taiwan and engaging in cyberattacks. The bureau reported over 19,000 “controversial” messages shared and millions of hacking intrusions. The CCP’s alleged cyberintrusions aimed to undermine support for Taiwan from international democratic allies, divert attention from internal issues, and project military strength despite anti-corruption campaigns, according to the NSB.
