India is advised to utilize its economic and political influence to implement a strategy of soft deterrence, combining preventive and re-engagement diplomacy, to negotiate with Bangladesh from a position of strength. The return of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to power has prompted India to explore engaging with the new regime in Dhaka, emphasizing the need for a broad set of engagements and clear priorities to address longstanding fears and frictions. Prioritizing engagement with Dhaka on strategic and security fronts is recommended, signaling limited room for recalibration.
India is encouraged to adopt a strategically assertive approach in dealing with the new BNP leadership, considering Sheikh Hasina’s extradition issue as a significant strategic challenge that hampers recalibration efforts. The report suggests that India should proactively explore economic and political avenues to contain any adversarial actions by Dhaka and protect its interests. Past approaches of recalibration and wait-and-watch have not yielded tangible results, especially under the new BNP leadership led by Tarique Rahman, where anti-India sentiments are expected to intensify.
Emphasizing the importance of India’s long-term economic influence in Bangladesh, particularly in trade, electricity exports, and supply chain management, the report highlights the need for India to leverage its position in the region effectively. India is advised to focus on messaging rather than direct action, using a transactional realism approach to caution Dhaka against jeopardizing its autonomy by adopting anti-India stances. The resurgence of the radical Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami and its ties with ISIS pose a security threat to both India and Bangladesh, necessitating non-negotiable security cooperation between the two countries.
