The Indian stock market saw significant gains driven by lower crude prices, a stronger rupee, and reduced bond yields despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Nifty climbed 0.76% throughout the week but fell by 0.60% on the final trading day, closing at 24,180. Sensex ended the week down by 516 points or 0.66% at 77,328, after a 0.54% increase overall.
Analysts noted a shift in market sentiment from caution to optimism due to improved macro conditions, allowing for profit-taking despite late-week uncertainties. Positive state election results and better-than-expected Q4 earnings further boosted investor confidence. Midcap and smallcap indices outperformed, with strong buying interest in sectors like autos, defense, realty, and pharma.
Nifty Midcap100 surged by 3.49%, and Nifty Smallcap100 by 4.05% during the week. While stable crude prices and rupee recovery provided short-term support, concerns over potential West Asia tensions pose a risk, especially for commodity-related sectors. The week concluded with market declines as US-Iran tensions led to reassessments of peace prospects and energy supply chain worries.
Brent crude oil dropped over 3% internationally, trading below $95 per barrel, while domestic crude futures fell below Rs 9,000, reversing previous gains. Market participants highlighted Nifty 50’s resistance at 24,250–24,300 and crucial support at 24,100–24,000 levels. In Bank Nifty, a sustained rise above 55,500 could drive recovery towards 55,800–56,000, strengthening short-term momentum.
Investors are closely monitoring India and US inflation data, domestic credit growth trends, and their impact on RBI rate expectations and corporate margins.
