Investors are closely watching the US-Iran negotiations, global crude oil prices, and Q4 FY26 earnings commentary to gauge market trends this week. The market is being supported by softer crude prices, improving global cues, and more stable flows. Analysts emphasize the need for follow-through buying in Indian equity markets to confirm a lasting uptrend, with easing Middle East tensions providing support.
An analyst noted that downside risks seem contained in the near term, while upward momentum is gradually increasing, signaling a shift from recovery to a more stable structure dependent on external catalysts. Continued stability or further moderation in crude prices could significantly benefit equities and bolster the broader macro outlook. The previous week saw markets closing with notable gains, extending their uptrend for the second consecutive week, driven by improved global sentiment.
Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement boosted market confidence, complemented by stable domestic fundamentals. Despite intermittent volatility, indices maintained an upward bias, with broader markets outperforming frontline indices. Nifty and Sensex both gained over 1% to close at 24,353 and 78,493, respectively. Brent crude corrected to around $86 before stabilizing in the $92–93 range due to temporary easing of shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Foreign institutional investors showed signs of stabilization, turning net buyers in the final three sessions, though overall flows remained marginally negative for the week. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors, who had been consistent supporters, turned net sellers in the final sessions, with DII outflows at approximately Rs 6,300 crore on a weekly basis. Technically, Nifty is consolidating in the 24,100–24,400 range, with immediate resistance near 24,400 and support around 24,000.
The 56,800–57,000 band is a crucial resistance zone for Bank Nifty, requiring a sustained breakout for further upward movement. Market participants suggest a portfolio allocation towards fundamentally strong large-cap stocks while selectively engaging in broader market opportunities. Energy and metal & mining sectors are expected to outperform sectorally, with other sectors participating on a rotational basis. On the macro front, infrastructure output data for March will be released on April 20, followed by Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI data for April on April 23, offering insights into economic momentum.
