Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is predicted to secure a majority in the House of Representatives election scheduled for February 8, according to local media reports. Opinion polls suggest that the LDP is likely to perform well, especially in areas with conservative voters. The Nikkei survey indicates that the LDP is on track to win over 198 seats it previously held, surpassing the 233-seat threshold needed for a majority in the 465-seat House.
The LDP candidates are leading in nearly 40% of the single-seat districts and are dominating in certain prefectures like Kumamoto, Yamaguchi, and Tokushima. However, there is stiff competition in over 150 districts where other political parties are giving the LDP a tough challenge. The opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) is projected to secure fewer seats than before, with their total falling below 100 seats.
Under the proportional representation system, the LDP is expected to gain 70 or more seats, up from 59 in the previous election. Together with the JIP, the LDP-led coalition is poised to win 261 seats, ensuring a majority on each committee. The CRA is likely to perform well in some single-seat districts and secure votes in around 40 districts, with a chance to win about 100 seats overall.
The Yomiuri Shimbun poll also indicates a potential majority win for the LDP in the upcoming election, particularly in regions like Chugoku and Kyushu. The JIP, on the other hand, is facing challenges in the proportional representation vote despite its stronghold in Osaka. The ruling coalition, which had a slim majority in the lower chamber before the dissolution, is aiming to strengthen its position in the upcoming election.
