Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are expected to encounter pressure and increased volatility in the upcoming week unless they successfully surpass key resistance levels, as per market analysts. The recent MSCI index rebalancing is believed to have intensified volatility in the final 30 minutes of trading, leading to a significant late-session decline.
Experts analyzing the technical outlook suggest that the Sensex is currently trading with a negative bias, with investor sentiment remaining cautious and limited buying interest at higher levels. Immediate resistance for the Sensex is noted around the 75,800–76,000 zone, while a broader resistance and supply area lies within the 76,500–76,700 range.
On the downside, the Sensex has immediate support in the 74,500–74,200 region. Maintaining levels above this zone is crucial to prevent further weakness, while a clear break below it could escalate downside pressure and expose the index to lower support levels, according to analysts.
In terms of the Nifty’s technical outlook, experts highlight that it continues to trade below its 20-week and 50-week exponential moving averages, signaling a lack of strong bullish momentum despite support from the broader long-term trendline. Immediate resistance levels for the Nifty are identified at 23,900 and 24,100, while support is seen at 23,400 and 23,200.
Market experts caution that a decisive breakdown below the 23,200 zone for the Nifty could trigger fresh selling pressure, whereas sustained trading above 24,100 might enhance sentiment and facilitate a recovery. The recent market session concluded with significant losses due to heavy selling in the final hour, influenced by uncertainties surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement and the impact of the MSCI rebalancing.
Throughout most of the trading session, the Sensex and Nifty traded within a narrow range, with investors largely adopting a cautious approach. However, sentiment deteriorated sharply towards the close, leading to intense selling pressure across various sectors. The Sensex plummeted by 1,092 points to settle at 74,775.74, while the Nifty closed 359 points lower at 23,547.75, following an intra-day low of 23,485.
