The upcoming week holds significance for stock markets, with key domestic and global events on the horizon. In India, investors eagerly anticipate retail inflation data on February 12, with an updated base year, along with WPI inflation and foreign exchange reserves data on February 13. Analysts emphasize the importance of these figures for insights into price trends and external sector stability.
On the global front, market participants will closely watch the heavy US data calendar and the performance of the Nasdaq Composite post its recent decline. Geopolitical developments, especially the US-Iran negotiations, will be under scrutiny. Market watchers warn that any setbacks in these talks could escalate volatility in global financial and commodity markets, potentially leading to increased risks of US military intervention and broader regional conflicts in the Middle East.
The movement of the Indian rupee, which has rebounded significantly since hitting a historic low post the India-US trade agreement announcement, and trends in foreign portfolio investor flows, are identified as crucial factors influencing short-term market direction. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, highlights the importance of these indicators as gauges of risk appetite and liquidity conditions.
Following the Union Budget 2026 and RBI’s monetary policy decisions, Indian equity markets are now in a consolidation phase. Investor attention has shifted towards implementation, capex execution, and the pace of actual spending. Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic sentiment, expecting markets to be event-driven in the near term, tracking global cues, capital flows, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Last week, the Nifty index experienced notable volatility, reaching a high of 26,341 and a low of 24,679 before closing at 25,693.70, marking a substantial gain of 868 points. The weekly chart shows a strong bullish candlestick formation, with Nifty closing above the 20-week EMA, indicating a positive shift in medium-term trend structure and bolstering bullish sentiment.
According to Aakash Shah, a Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, immediate resistance levels for Nifty are at 25,800, 26,000, and 26,200, while support levels are seen at 25,500 and 25,200. A breach below 25,100 could escalate downside pressure and trigger corrective movements.
