Trade between the United States and China has decreased to just 2% of global trade, down from 2.7% in 2024, as per a recent report. The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026, in collaboration with New York University Stern School of Business, highlights a growing disconnect between the two largest economies globally, despite strong overall globalization. Global economic ties have shown resilience amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and trade policy uncertainties.
The report reveals that trade between the US and China peaked at 3.6% of world trade in 2015. However, this share has been steadily declining, dropping to 2.7% in 2024 and further falling to approximately 2% in the initial three quarters of 2025. Cross-border business investment between the two nations is even lower, constituting less than 1% of global investment flows.
Despite the diminishing relations between Washington and Beijing, the report emphasizes that global globalization has remained steady. The global connectedness level stood at about 25% in 2025, matching the record level observed in 2022. The index gauges international flows of trade, capital, information, and people on a scale from 0 to 100.
John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, pointed out that countries and companies are maintaining international connections even amid uncertain times. He stressed the importance of cooperation and global thinking to address significant global challenges such as poverty and climate change.
The report also notes that global trade expanded faster in 2025 compared to any year since 2017, excluding the atypical fluctuations during the Covid-19 pandemic. Much of this growth was fueled by increased shipments before anticipated tariff increases in the US and a surge in demand for artificial intelligence-related products. AI-related goods contributed to approximately 42% of global goods trade growth during the initial three quarters of 2025, according to the World Trade Organization.
Looking forward, the report anticipates continued growth in global trade, albeit at a moderate pace. Goods trade is forecasted to increase at an average annual rate of around 2.6% through 2029, aligning broadly with growth rates over the past decade. Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, highlighted that the political discourse surrounding globalization often appears more dramatic than the actual shifts in global business flows.
