The National Security Strategy of US President Donald Trump’s administration has raised concerns for Southeast Asia, indicating a potential shift in US-China dynamics. The report suggests that the US might no longer serve as a counterbalance to China’s assertiveness in the region, leading to uncertainties in the security landscape. Southeast Asian nations are urged to strengthen regional institutions and expand partnerships with other powers to navigate the evolving geopolitical environment.
The upcoming ASEAN Chairmanship of the Philippines in 2026 is expected to focus on the South China Sea dispute and maritime security. However, the chances of a revised code of conduct on the South China Sea seem uncertain following the release of the Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy. This strategy marks a departure from previous internationalist values to a more transactional and America-centric foreign policy approach.
The report highlights a shift in US foreign policy towards accepting the influence of larger nations like China and Russia as a norm in international relations. This change suggests that China and Russia are no longer viewed as direct competitors or threats to the established international order. As the US reevaluates its global priorities, Southeast Asian countries may face strategic uncertainties and the need to recalibrate their diplomatic strategies.
With the US focusing more on its immediate interests, Southeast Asian nations that traditionally relied on American support may need to adjust to a changing geopolitical landscape. The report emphasizes the importance of Southeast Asian countries strengthening their regional institutions and fostering closer cooperation with China amidst shifting power dynamics.
