China’s approach towards Japan is seen as a strategic blunder rather than a tactical misstep, as it fails to understand how influence is established in Asia. By treating Japan as an adversary instead of a partner in the region, Beijing is limiting its strategic choices. This shift in China’s stance towards Japan has led to increased pressure and negative perceptions in East and Southeast Asia.
The report notes that Beijing’s recent actions, such as frequent entries of Chinese coast guard vessels into disputed waters near the Senkaku Islands, have escalated tensions. China’s persistent maritime presence near Japan in 2025, lasting over 356 days, marks a significant departure from past practices. Additionally, Beijing’s public messaging has become more confrontational, portraying Japan’s defense reforms as militaristic rather than defensive.
Economically, China has employed various tactics, including export controls and pressure on Japanese companies in China, indicating a shift towards normalized coercion. This coercive behavior has strained bilateral relations and reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of Japan’s regional role. Beijing’s portrayal of Tokyo as an extension of US containment efforts rather than an independent actor has further complicated the situation.
The report warns that China’s current trajectory risks alienating the region, not due to its power but its behavior. To improve relations, a recalibrated approach emphasizing restraint, predictability, and mutual coexistence is suggested, rather than confrontation or concession.
