Even before the official start of the southwest monsoon in Rajasthan, Chittorgarh district has experienced exceptional pre-monsoon rainfall. Within the first 15 days of June, the district received 88 mm (3.46 inches) of rain, surpassing levels seen in the same period over the past three years. This unexpected high rainfall has contradicted earlier predictions of a subdued monsoon season after a period of intense heat known as Nautapa.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the monsoon’s arrival in Chittorgarh and the Mewar region between June 22 and June 25. If the current weather trends persist, June 2026 could be among the wettest months in recent memory. Data from the past four years emphasize the significance of this year’s pre-monsoon activity. The 88 mm of rainfall recorded in the first half of June has already surpassed the total rainfall for the entire month of June 2025, which was 75 mm, and nearly equaled the June 2024 total of 91.2 mm.
While the current rainfall levels are slightly lower than those in 2023, when Cyclone Biparjoy caused exceptionally heavy showers, meteorologists consider this year’s pattern highly unusual for a typical pre-monsoon season. The figures highlight the remarkably strong pre-monsoon activity observed this year. Despite this promising start, experts warn that El Nino conditions could still impact the overall monsoon season.
Dr. R.S. Sharma, the director of IMC Jaipur, explains that active El Nino conditions might lead to reduced rainfall during the core monsoon months. This phenomenon has the potential to weaken southwest monsoon winds and decrease seasonal rainfall. Consequently, this year’s total monsoon precipitation may hover around 90 percent of the long-term average, categorizing it as below normal despite the heavy pre-monsoon downpours.
El Nino, characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, tends to disrupt southwest monsoon circulation in India, resulting in below-average rainfall and prolonged dry spells. The IMD has reported the southwest monsoon’s progress, starting from the Kerala coast and steadily advancing across peninsular and eastern India.
