The Economic Survey predicts India’s real GDP growth for the fiscal year 2026-2027 to be between 6.8 and 7.2 percent, emphasizing steady growth amidst global uncertainties. It notes that external uncertainties, rather than immediate macroeconomic stress, are the primary concern for India. The country’s economy is stable, with low inflation levels and robust balance sheets across households, firms, and banks.
Public investment continues to bolster economic activity, while consumption demand remains strong and private investment intentions are improving. These factors enhance resilience against external shocks and sustain growth momentum. The survey highlights the importance of maintaining policy credibility and adequate buffers to mitigate risks such as slower growth in trading partners and trade disruptions.
India’s recent policy reforms have elevated the economy’s medium-term growth potential to around 7 percent. With domestic drivers leading growth and macroeconomic stability well-established, the risks surrounding growth are relatively balanced. On a global scale, the economic outlook remains subdued in the medium term, with downside risks prevailing.
Globally, modest growth is anticipated, accompanied by stable commodity prices. Inflation rates have decreased across economies, prompting more accommodative monetary policies to support growth. However, risks persist, including the potential impact of an AI productivity shortfall on asset valuations and financial contagion. Trade conflicts could further dampen investment and weaken global growth prospects, underscoring the prevailing downside risks despite a fragile stability in the current scenario.
