Global average temperatures are projected to stay at or close to record levels over the next five years, with Arctic temperatures likely to continue exceeding the global average, as per the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The WMO report ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026-2035’, compiled by the UK’s Met Office and the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction, incorporates predictions from 13 institutes.
The report not only reviews the climate observed in the past five years but also provides regional forecasts for temperatures and precipitation in the upcoming five years, according to Xinhua news agency. It anticipates that the global mean near-surface temperatures from 2026 to 2030 will be between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850-1900 average. There is a likelihood that a year within 2026-2030 might surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
The report forecasts that the average global temperature for 2026-2030 is expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average, with no single year in that period likely to surpass 2.0 degrees Celsius. It also suggests a trend towards El Nino conditions in the central tropical Pacific over the next five years, especially in 2027 and 2028.
Lead author of the report, Leon Hermanson, mentioned, “There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.” The report clarifies that occasional years with temperatures exceeding the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees Celsius thresholds set in the Paris Agreement do not indicate failure to meet the agreement’s long-term goals.
Additionally, the report highlights that Arctic temperatures during the next five extended northern hemisphere winters (November to March) are forecasted to be 2.8 degrees Celsius above the average temperatures for 1991-2020, significantly higher than the global mean temperature anomaly during the same period.
