Global average temperatures are projected to stay at or close to record highs over the next five years, as per a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) prepared by the UK’s Met Office. The report highlights that Arctic temperature anomalies are anticipated to continue exceeding the global average. Although temperatures are forecasted to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, this does not violate the Paris Agreement, which focuses on long-term warming trends typically spanning two decades.
Annual global mean near-surface temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are estimated to vary between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average. The report indicates an 86% likelihood that a year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record. Furthermore, it is highly probable (91% chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average for at least one year within the same period.
In 2024, the global average surface temperature briefly exceeded 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline. Dr. Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report, mentioned a predicted El Nino event by the end of 2026, raising the possibility of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year. The anticipated five-year average temperature in the central tropical Pacific (Nino 3.4 region) suggests a leaning towards El Nino conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
The Paris Agreement aims to keep the long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and strive to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Scientists have consistently cautioned that exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius could lead to more severe climate change impacts, extreme weather events, and reduced adaptation options.
