Gold saw its first weekly gain since May as trader expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate hikes decreased, causing bullion prices to rise by around 3.1% for the week. Soft US job numbers and lower energy prices contributed to investors scaling back their expectations of monetary policy tightening. On Friday, MCX gold August futures saw a slight decrease of 0.01%, while MCX silver July futures edged up by 0.04%. Currently, gold futures are at Rs 1,47,365, and silver futures at Rs 2,37,499 per kg.
The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold stood at Rs 1,46,344 on Friday, up from Rs 1,41,911 at the beginning of the week, as reported by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA). Analysts noted that gold extended its recovery streak for the fourth consecutive session, reaching a 10-day high on Friday. This rebound follows a period of sustained selling post the May 13 import duty hike, with a positive sentiment driven by a weaker US dollar.
Market experts highlighted that the recent decline in the Dollar Index has spurred fresh buying in bullion. They predict that gold is likely to trade within the range of Rs 1,45,000–1,49,000, with global cues playing a significant role in shaping market sentiment. Analysts attributed the reduced likelihood of further Fed tightening to softer US labor data and declining energy costs. Hiring in the US slowed notably in June, leading traders to lower the probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed’s upcoming meeting to below 20%.
Lower energy prices and subdued job growth have prompted analysts to anticipate a gradual easing of inflationary pressures in the coming months. Oil prices have experienced a significant quarterly correction, with shipments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates nearing pre-war levels. Efforts by US President Donald Trump and allies to appoint more Federal Reserve members after a Supreme Court ruling blocked the removal of Governor Lisa Cook have reignited concerns about Fed independence. Similar attempts last year, challenging the Fed’s autonomy, contributed to a rally in gold prices as investors sought protection against potential policy changes.
