The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an above-normal number of heatwave days across east and east-central India, parts of southeast Peninsula, and some areas in northwest and west-central India from March to May. Specifically, isolated regions in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh may experience above-normal heatwave days during March 2026. The IMD’s forecast for the upcoming hot weather season anticipates above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country.
During March 2026, the IMD expects normal to above-normal rainfall in many regions of India, except for northeast India and certain parts of northwest and east-central India where below-normal rainfall is likely. Monthly maximum temperatures for March 2026 are projected to be normal to below normal in many parts of India, with exceptions in northeast India, adjoining east India, and some areas of the Western Himalayan region and central & Peninsular India where above-normal maximum temperatures are expected.
The forecast also indicates above-normal monthly minimum temperatures for most parts of the country during March 2026, except for certain areas in Northwest India, the South Peninsula, and along the east coast where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are forecasted. Looking ahead to the hot weather season (MAM), above-normal minimum temperatures are highly likely across most parts of India, except for some regions in South Peninsular India and isolated areas elsewhere where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are expected.
The IMD has been issuing seasonal temperature outlooks for India since 2016, covering both hot and cold seasons, with a focus on enhancing forecast accuracy and reliability. Utilizing a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)–based forecasting system that integrates outputs from various global climate models, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) model, the IMD has prepared seasonal and monthly temperature forecast outlooks for the upcoming hot weather season (March to May 2026).
