India is projected to achieve a per capita income of $4,000 by 2030, transitioning to an upper middle-income country alongside China and Indonesia. The country took 60 years post-independence to reach $1 trillion, hitting $2 trillion in 2014, $3 trillion in 2021, and is expected to reach $4 trillion by 2025. Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at the State Bank of India, highlighted India’s growth milestones, including reaching $1,000 per capita income in 2009, $2,000 in 2019, and $3,000 in 2026.
The report indicates that India’s percentile rank in global GDP growth has risen from the 92nd to the 95th percentile over 25 years, positioning the country favorably in the upper echelons of global growth. To attain a high-income status by 2047, with a GNI threshold of $13,936, India must maintain a 7.5% CAGR in per capita GNI. However, if the threshold increases to $18,000, the required growth rate would be around 8.9% over the next 23 years.
Considering a 0.6% average population growth and a deflator average of major economies, India needs to achieve around 11.5% nominal GDP growth in dollar terms for the next 23 years. The report emphasizes the necessity for India to sustain its reform agenda to achieve the incremental growth essential for reaching the high-income bracket. India is poised to become an upper middle-income country with a threshold per capita GNI of approximately $4,500, achievable through around 11.5% growth in nominal GDP.
