As global markets shift towards a reflationary phase, a report indicates that India is expected to contribute over 15% of global incremental GDP growth from 2025 to 2030. The report by Equirus Wealth highlights India’s growth potential as investors look to diversify beyond the US AI trade.
Foreign institutional investor outflows of nearly $18 billion in 2025 have left India underweight in many portfolios, creating opportunities for selective inflows if emerging market sentiment improves. The MSCI Emerging Markets index, where 75% is concentrated in China, India, Korea, and Taiwan, positions India as a key beneficiary within emerging markets.
India is projected to play a significant role in global incremental GDP growth between 2025 and 2030, surpassing the combined contributions of Japan and Germany. The current reflation phase, driven by structural disinflation and targeted policy support, emphasizes the importance of earnings durability and balance-sheet strength for returns.
“We are entering a reflationary phase, but this cycle is very different from past risk-on environments. It is not about excess liquidity, but about policy-led support for growth in a low-inflation world,” said Mitesh Shah, CEO of Equirus Family Office. The wealth management firm favors the 4-7 year government bond segment, particularly state development loans, with the 10-year yield at around 6.60%.
Gold remains a long-term portfolio hedge, supported by central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and declining trust in fiat currencies. Silver, on the other hand, is seen as a tactical, high-volatility trade.
