The US capture of Venezuela’s President Nicholas Maduro and control of its oil fields may result in Indian refineries gaining from the import of heavier Venezuelan barrels, which are priced lower than Brent, thus enhancing their gross refining margins. India used to import up to 400 thousand barrels per day (KBD) of Venezuelan crude, and now, Indian players could potentially increase their output from the San Cristobal and Carabobo-1 fields with access to equipment and investments. Brent is projected to average around $61.5 per barrel in CY26, with limited new barrels entering the market this year, while the introduction of fresh Venezuelan supply could impact prices from the following year.
Heavier Venezuelan barrels might speed up the phasing out of simpler refineries globally as more sophisticated plants in India and China become operational, potentially improving supply balances over the medium term. The report also noted that Venezuela’s potential significant increase in output is hindered by years of underinvestment by the state-owned oil firm PDVSA. In the best-case scenario, production could see a rise of about 150 KBD in 2026 through operational spending, but larger increments would necessitate substantial capital investment.
Following the US capture of Venezuela’s President on January 3, 2026, and his extradition to face charges in a US court, US President Donald Trump announced plans for US oil companies to invest in reviving Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. This move aims to boost the nation’s oil production, facilitating increased crude flows to the US and other markets. Venezuela, holding the world’s largest oil reserves at 303 billion barrels, saw its production drop to about 0.9 million barrels per day in November 2025 from 2 million barrels per day in the early 2010s.
