India’s merchandise export growth in June stood at 15.5% year-on-year, totaling $40.4 billion, according to a report. This growth, although robust, showed a slight easing compared to May’s 18% growth, primarily due to a significant drop in petroleum exports. Crisil Ratings highlighted the positive performance of agricultural exports in June, driven by a favorable base effect.
Rice exports saw a notable increase of 16.5% year-on-year, while exports of meat, dairy, poultry, and marine products also showed substantial growth. Additionally, other cereals experienced a remarkable surge of 244.2%. Gems and jewellery exports surged by 34.6%, compensating for the decline in petroleum exports.
The report pointed out a 15.3% rise in core exports, with significant contributions from organic and inorganic chemicals, electronic items, and pharmaceuticals. Engineering goods also saw a healthy growth rate of 20.7%, indicating a positive trend in the sector. However, petroleum exports declined to $4.9 billion in June from $8.4 billion in May, attributed to a drop in Brent crude prices.
Merchandise imports surged by 31% to $70.8 billion in June, primarily driven by increased core imports, oil purchases, and gold acquisitions. The report projected a widening current account deficit to 1.5% of GDP in fiscal 2027 from 0.6% in fiscal 2026, citing oil prices as a key factor. It warned that elevated crude and commodity prices could further impact the deficit.
The ratings agency forecasted an average crude oil price of $82–87 per barrel in the upcoming year but highlighted geopolitical risks in West Asia as a potential uncertainty affecting these projections.
