India’s total merchandise exports for the April-June quarter of FY27 stand at $111.9 billion, showing a slight year-on-year increase. The Export-Import Bank of India projects non-oil exports to reach $97.8 billion, marking a 3.5% growth compared to the same period last year. Additionally, non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are expected to reach $90.4 billion, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth during the same quarter.
The Export-Import Bank of India anticipates that the growth in non-oil exports will be driven by expanded geographical diversification of shipments, timely policy interventions, and specific emergency credit support measures. Recent trade negotiations with certain countries are also predicted to sustain growth in non-oil export sectors, according to the bank’s report. Furthermore, India’s export outlook may benefit from an anticipated rise in global demand and favorable exchange rate movements.
Despite these positive indicators, the bank warns of lingering risks due to global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in international commodity markets. The Export-Import Bank of India regularly issues quarterly forecasts for merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports using its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. This model assesses various domestic and global factors to track and predict India’s export performance on a quarterly basis.
The bank has announced that the next export forecast for the July-September quarter of FY27 will be disclosed in the first half of August 2026.
