India’s monsoon rainfall showed slight improvement but remained weak, as reported by Emkay Global Financial Services. Food price inflation stayed stable, with vegetables up 1.5%, eggs 1%, cereals 0.5%, and oils & fats 0.2% in weekly retail changes. On an annual basis, oils and fats rose by 11%, eggs by 6%, vegetables by 3%, milk by 3%, spices by 3%, cereals by 2%, and pulses by 1%.
The deficient monsoons in key food-producing states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh may threaten food supplies and lead to price hikes in the upcoming weeks. Cumulative rainfall until July 3 was 31% below the long-period average, with June recording a 40% deficit compared to the long-term average, marking the worst June in a decade for rainfall. Sowing activities have decreased due to the weak monsoon, resulting in critically low reservoir storage levels.
Reservoir levels across India are at only 26% of capacity, a 39% drop from the same period last year. Central India has the highest storage at 32%, followed by North India at 29% and West India at 28%. However, South India stands at 20% and East India at 19%, indicating significantly lower storage levels. The India Meteorological Department predicts below-normal rainfall in July 2026, raising concerns about the monsoon and the Kharif sowing season.
