As India approaches Akshaya Tritiya, a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) reveals that gold prices have surged by nearly 10% in 2026 amidst global uncertainty. Despite festive tailwinds, gold’s journey this year has been volatile, influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic growth concerns, and uncertainty over US interest rate movements.
The report emphasizes that gold prices are driven by various global factors, with geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties boosting its safe-haven appeal. While intermittent strength in the US dollar and high bond yields have caused pressure, the overall outlook for gold remains positive in the long term.
Navneet Damani, Head of Research – Commodities at MOFSL, stated, “Gold is currently navigating a complex global environment, supported by uncertainty, inflation concerns, and long-term investment demand.” The report also highlights differing trends in key markets, with subdued jewelry demand in India due to high prices, while China experiences stronger investment-led demand.
Moreover, there is a shift in India towards financial forms of gold like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), indicating changing investor preferences. Central banks purchased up to 870 tonnes of gold in 2025, as per World Gold Council data, showing continued strong buying. Global ETF demand has also shown signs of recovery in 2026 after earlier outflows.
Manav Modi of MOFSL noted, “Investors are gradually changing how they participate in gold, showing interest in flexible and transparent investment options.” The report affirms that gold’s long-term fundamentals remain strong as a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and global uncertainty, with historical data supporting its consistent long-term returns.
Looking ahead, the report predicts gold to trade within a broad range in the near term as markets adapt to evolving global cues. While some consolidation may follow the recent rally, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive. Geopolitical risks, global growth slowdown, and potential monetary easing later in the year could support prices, while a strong dollar, inflation, and weak physical demand may pose short-term challenges.
For investors with a medium to long-term horizon, the report suggests a “buy on dips” strategy.
