Kerala’s Communist Party, part of the Left Democratic Front, is eyeing a third straight win in the upcoming April-May Assembly election. The LDF has already made history by securing back-to-back victories in 2016 and 2021, a first since 1977. Led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the LDF faces the United Democratic Front, led by the Congress, as its main opposition.
The 2021 Assembly polls saw the LDF clinch 99 seats, an increase from its previous tally, while the UDF secured 41 seats, a slight decrease from before. The National Democratic Alliance witnessed a dip in its vote share in 2021 and lost its only Assembly seat from Nemom. However, political dynamics in Kerala have started to shift.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the UDF dominated by winning 18 out of 20 seats in Kerala, with the Congress alone securing 14 seats. Notably, the BJP secured its first Lok Sabha seat from Kerala in Thrissur. Looking forward to the 2026 Assembly elections, early projections indicate a close contest between the LDF and UDF.
The recent local body elections in December hinted at changing trends, with the UDF making progress in traditional Left strongholds. The BJP also emerged as a potential third force, especially after its breakthrough in Thiruvananthapuram. The results of these elections are seen as precursors to the 2026 Assembly polls.
Despite the UDF’s improving prospects, the Congress is grappling with internal challenges, including leadership disputes. In a bid to address these issues, Congress leader Shashi Tharoor has ruled out running for the chief minister’s post. However, there are concerns within the party due to developments in Karnataka.
Shashi Tharoor, following discussions with top Congress leaders, has publicly declined the chief ministerial candidacy, despite being a favored choice in a recent survey. While the Congress-led front seems to be gaining momentum, Kerala’s complex political landscape suggests a tough road ahead for all contenders.
