Slashing global aid, especially by the US and European nations, could undo decades of progress in disease control, leading to 22.6 million more deaths by 2030, as per a study in The Lancet Global Health. The study, led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, predicts these deaths across 93 low- and middle-income countries, including India, with 5.4 million children under five at risk.
Severe cuts in official development assistance (ODA) will impact Sub-Saharan Africa the most among the 93 analyzed countries. Asia, including India, faces risks in 21 countries, followed by Latin America, the Middle East, North Africa, and ten European countries like Ukraine.
The study coordinator, Davide Rasella, emphasized that withdrawing support now could reverse progress and result in preventable deaths. Budget decisions in donor countries today will have lasting impacts on millions of lives.
Research shows that ODA helped reduce global child mortality by 39% from 2002 to 2021, preventing HIV/AIDS deaths by 70%, and reducing deaths from malaria and malnutrition by 56%. The aid also improved global health outcomes in these 93 countries, home to 75% of the world’s population.
International aid declined in 2024 after six years of growth, with major contributors like the US, UK, France, and Germany reducing ODA for the first time in nearly three decades. Two scenarios modeled from 2025 to 2030 show that mild or severe defunding could lead to 9.4 million or 22.6 million additional deaths, respectively, including children under five.
Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, highlighted the moral implications of political leaders’ zero-sum approach, urging action to prevent such human suffering.
