The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is poised to reclaim power in Kerala, ending a decade-long opposition stint, as indicated by various exit polls. Projections point towards a significant advantage for the UDF, potentially marking the conclusion of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s ten-year rule. Most surveys predict that the UDF is on track to surpass the majority threshold of 71 seats in the 140-member Assembly.
Several exit polls, including CNN–News18 and People’s Pulse, forecast a substantial seat range for the UDF, with estimates varying between 70–85 seats. The prevailing trend across different projections suggests a consistent lead for the UDF. Axis My India’s vote share projection places the UDF at around 44%, ahead of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 39%, the NDA at 14%, and other parties at approximately 3%.
Detailed projections by various agencies like CNN–News18, PMARQ, Matrize, and People’s Pulse outline seat estimations for the UDF, LDF, and NDA. While the LDF, with 99 seats in the outgoing assembly, expressed confidence in its governance record post-polls, the UDF emphasized anti-incumbency sentiment and a united campaign as factors contributing to a potential clear mandate. The BJP-led NDA, although not expected to make significant gains, remains optimistic about enhancing its presence in certain constituencies with triangular contests.
The release of exit polls follows the conclusion of polling phases in multiple states, with counting scheduled for Monday. Notably, the 2021 elections had accurately predicted an LDF return, adding a layer of caution to the current projections. With a robust voter turnout recorded on April 9, Kerala anticipates the final verdict to ascertain the potential shift in power.
