The upcoming Union Budget 2026-27 is expected to emphasize reforms, as per a report by HSBC. The government’s recent announcements indicate a push for further reforms. The budget presentation is scheduled for February 1, followed by the RBI policy meeting on February 6.
The report highlights that the government is likely to concentrate on two key aspects during this period: restraint and reforms. It anticipates that the government will meet its fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP for FY26. The reduction in tax rates leading to decreased revenues is expected to be offset partially by robust RBI and PSU dividends, along with reduced current expenditure.
In the fiscal year 2027, the report foresees a fiscal deficit of 4.2% of GDP, with an unchanged net borrowing bill of Rs 11.5 lakh crore. Despite assumptions of some switches, a high redemption bill is projected to increase gross borrowing to Rs 16 lakh crore. However, the growth in borrowing is anticipated to remain below nominal GDP growth, ensuring manageability. The report suggests that the fiscal impulse will likely be nearly neutral despite fiscal consolidation, aided by a lower level of consolidation and increased receipts from RBI dividends.
The report also indicates that the central government’s public debt target for FY31 is on track with the current consolidation path. Conversely, state governments may witness a rise in their public debt ratios in the coming years, lacking a similar consolidation trajectory. Overall, the report suggests that gross market borrowing, even with states included, may grow slightly lower than nominal GDP growth compared to the previous fiscal year.
Regarding economic policies, the report expects continued deregulation efforts at both state and central levels, incentives for small manufacturing firms, and a shift towards capex loans for states in capex diversification. It also anticipates some streamlining in subsidies and centrally sponsored schemes. Externally, the report predicts a significant move towards rationalizing customs duties, ongoing removal of non-tariff barriers, and increased openness to foreign direct investment across various sectors.
