The ceasefire between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan fell apart as Pakistan declared open warfare against Kabul, with initial strikes favoring Pakistan. Despite Pakistan’s air power advantage, the Taliban, experienced in past conflicts, poses a significant ground threat. Within Pakistani military circles, calls for regime change in Afghanistan are growing amid unfounded accusations of Afghan support for Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Tensions escalated further due to recent Taliban overtures towards India.
Officials in Pakistan are contemplating regime change in Afghanistan, a move that could backfire significantly. An error in expelling Afghan refugees, who now support the Afghan regime, has fueled anti-Pakistan sentiment. This miscalculation has inadvertently bolstered Taliban support among the Afghan populace, hindering Pakistan’s infiltration plans.
Efforts to infiltrate Afghanistan have been thwarted as the local population, including the Taliban, views Pakistan as a common adversary. Previous attempts to leverage anti-Taliban sentiment in Afghanistan have failed, leading to a united front against Pakistani interference. Talks between Pakistan and the Taliban in Turkey and Qatar soured over issues like the TTP and the Durand Line, with the Taliban feeling marginalized by Pakistan’s approach.
The Taliban’s unwavering stance on the Durand Line and Afghanistan’s firm position on border issues pose significant obstacles to any compromise. Unlike past regimes, today’s Taliban is less reliant on Pakistan, complicating Islamabad’s attempts at regime change. With local support and Taliban alignment against Pakistan, Islamabad faces a challenging path forward in Afghanistan.
