The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall in India is expected to be below normal, around 90-95% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The IMD’s Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season indicates that the overall seasonal rainfall is likely to be 92% of the LPA, with a model error of plus-minus 5%. The LPA for the seasonal rainfall over the country, based on the period of 1971-2020, stands at 87 cm.
On Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions, the IMD notes the transition from weak La Nina-like conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the potential development of El Nino conditions during the SW Monsoon season. El Nino and La Nina are phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, impacting global weather patterns.
The IMD highlights the current presence of neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean. Climate models suggest a likelihood of positive IOD conditions developing towards the end of the southwest monsoon season. Given the significant influence of sea surface temperature conditions on the Indian monsoon, the IMD is closely monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
