India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3 FY26) is projected to be strong at 8.3%, primarily driven by increased demand following a goods and services tax (GST) rate reduction. The Union Bank of India report indicates an improvement in gross value added growth to 8% from 6.5% in the previous year’s Q3 FY25, although slightly lower than the 8.1% growth seen in the second quarter.
The report highlights that the GDP data for Q3 FY26 is expected to show a significant increase to 8.3%, a notable rise from the 6.4% recorded in the same period of the previous year (Q3 FY25). Nominal GDP growth is anticipated to have moderated to 8.5%, down from 8.7% in Q2 and 10.3% in the corresponding period last year, attributed to a decline in GDP deflator amid decreasing inflation.
Based on the old base year, the bank’s estimates reflect uncertainties regarding the impact of the base year revision on GDP figures following the revision by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. While the growth outlook for FY26 appears robust and early indicators for FY27 suggest sustained momentum, annual estimates will require reassessment once clarity emerges on the forthcoming GDP base revision.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is set to unveil the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data with the revised base year of 2022-23 on Friday. The selection of FY 2022-23 as the base year for the new series aims to enhance estimates across institutional sectors, particularly private corporations and MSME-heavy activities where data gaps have historically existed.
