India’s GDP growth in the third quarter of FY26 is projected to be between 8-8.1%, as per a report by SBI Research. Despite global challenges, the domestic economy has shown robust growth momentum. High-frequency data indicates strong economic activity in Q3 FY26, with rural consumption driven by positive signals from both farm and non-farm sectors.
Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at State Bank of India, highlighted that rural consumption remains strong, while urban consumption has seen a consistent uptick since the last festive season. The first advance estimate suggests that GDP is expected to grow at 7.4% in FY26, primarily fueled by domestic demand. India is transitioning its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, with the new series set for release on February 27.
The revision, coupled with an updated CPI base in 2024, aims to provide a more accurate reflection of the current economic landscape, including the rise in digital commerce and services. This overhaul will enhance the measurement of the informal sector and incorporate new data sources like GST, potentially positioning India as the world’s fourth-largest economy.
The upcoming methodology will integrate more detailed data, such as GST records, e-Vahan (vehicle registrations), and data on natural gas consumption. The Second Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26, along with GDP estimates for the past three financial years and Quarterly GDP estimates based on the new 2022-23 base, will also be released on February 27. According to the latest Economic Survey, India’s potential GDP is estimated at around 7%, with growth expected to range between 6.8-7.2% during FY27.
Amid a global economic environment marked by high uncertainty, growth is forecasted at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026. However, this growth remains uneven globally due to factors like geopolitical tensions, high debt levels, and structural shifts such as digitalization and decarbonization.
