With relations deteriorating between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, Intelligence Bureau officials suggest that Pakistan is strategizing a regime change in Afghanistan. The urgency to execute this plan has heightened due to China’s pressure on Pakistan to improve relations with Afghanistan. Despite attempts at reconciliation, the Taliban ruling Afghanistan remains resistant, leading Pakistan to consider a significant regime change operation.
Recognizing the challenges in garnering Afghan support for its plan, Pakistan anticipates direct confrontation with the Afghan Taliban forces. In addition to tackling the Taliban, Pakistan faces internal threats from groups like the Balochistan Nationalist Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). To counter these threats, Pakistan has aligned with the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), partnering with Lashkar-e-Taiba to target regions such as Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
Amidst internal turmoil, Pakistan aims to unite ISKP and Lashkar-e-Taiba against the BLA and TTP, rather than escalating troop presence in these regions solely against the Afghan Taliban. Despite persistent efforts, Pakistan’s attempts to engage the Afghan Taliban have been rebuffed, leading to escalating tensions and mistrust over the years.
The Afghan Taliban’s resilience poses a significant challenge to Pakistan, with the group inflicting notable damage on the Pakistani army. Additionally, Pakistan faces scrutiny within terror networks for its strained ties with the Taliban, especially as the Taliban strengthens relations with India. Pressure from China to reconcile with the Taliban, particularly for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project 2.0 (CPEC), intensifies the need for Pakistan to mend relations with the Taliban.
However, deep-rooted mistrust between Pakistan and the Taliban impedes progress in peace talks, despite external mediation efforts. As patience wears thin and under mounting pressure from China, Pakistan appears determined to pursue a regime change in Afghanistan to secure its interests. This strategic move could potentially benefit Pakistan by installing a compliant regime, fostering collaboration with China on CPEC involving Afghanistan, and creating an anti-India puppet regime akin to Bangladesh.
