Amid various pollsters forecasting election results in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry, the independent agency Shining India Survey has predicted a significant win for the BJP in Assam and a possible upset for the LDF in Kerala. Shining India Survey, known for accurately gauging public sentiment in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, foresees a clear victory for the BJP in Assam under the leadership of Himanta Biswa Sarma.
The survey indicates that the BJP is likely to secure 88 seats with a vote share of 45.8%, while the Congress may win 31 seats with a 37.5% vote share. Regional players such as the AIUDF and Independents are not expected to have a substantial impact, collectively holding a vote share of 8–10%, translating to 4–7 seats, with a margin of error in the projections.
In Kerala, the survey anticipates a change in government with the UDF projected to come to power, surpassing the LDF. The UDF is expected to win 83 constituencies, while the LDF and NDA are projected to secure 54 and three seats, respectively. The UDF is estimated to lead in vote share at 43.6%, followed by the LDF at 38.2%, and the NDA at 13.5%, which might not convert into a significant number of seats.
The survey also suggests a status quo outcome in Tamil Nadu, despite the entry of actor Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). Projections show the ruling DMK winning 124 seats, the AIADMK securing 103 seats, and the TVK potentially influencing outcomes in seven constituencies. Vote share projections indicate a close competition, with the DMK at 38.6%, the AIADMK at 37.3%, and the TVK at 16.2% in its electoral debut.
Notably, the Shining India Survey accurately predicted the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, projecting 251 seats for the BJP and 98 for the Congress, with a margin of error of 8–15 seats. The survey was conducted by journalist-cum-psephologist Hrithik Saini, who is also the Editor-in-Chief of Shining India News.
