The latest exit poll by the Centre for Policy and Development Studies suggests a closely fought Tamil Nadu Assembly election. The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led bloc are in a tight race, with actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam emerging as a significant third player. Based on a survey of 46,000 voters across all 234 constituencies, neither major party seems to have a clear advantage, setting the stage for a potentially dramatic outcome on counting day.
The projections indicate that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led Secular Progressive Alliance is likely to secure 108–118 seats, slightly ahead but still close to the majority mark of 118. On the other hand, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance, including the Bharatiya Janata Party, is expected to win 102–112 seats, staying within reach of power. Notably, the Centre for Policy and Development Studies exit poll highlights the strong performance of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, projected to win 16–26 seats.
Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam’s rise is attributed to the youth vote, which seems to have split significantly. Young voters turned out in large numbers, dividing their support almost equally among the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance, and Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. This three-way split among first-time and young voters has disrupted traditional voting patterns, adding uncertainty to the election outcome.
In terms of vote share, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance is projected to secure around 37–38%, closely followed by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance at 35–36%, while Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is estimated to gain a significant 16–18% vote share. The remaining votes are expected to be divided among smaller parties and independents. Regionally, the competition remains intense across key areas, with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance leading in Chennai and northern districts, and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance performing well in western and southern regions.
The Kongu belt, in particular, is witnessing a highly competitive triangular contest. With slim margins and a strong third force, the Centre for Policy and Development Studies exit poll indicates that Tamil Nadu is heading towards one of its closest electoral verdicts in recent history, where even minor shifts could impact the final result.
